Looking at Covid-19’s potential impact on our food and agriculture system is an incredibly important task to prepare for the unknown and develop a more resilient agriculture system. The impacts vary widely across the gamut, from  small vegetable farms to large commodity grain operations.

After some initial online research and several conversations with farmers in the U.S., I have put together a list of some of the potential impacts that Covid-19 will have on commodity grain growing operations this 2020 season. These are some of the bigger potential impacts that many grain farmers are thinking about but is by no means an exclusive list. I will also note that throughout this research I found conflicting opinions on certain topics, such as the pandemic’s impact on input prices. These differing opinions show the amount of uncertainty that is ahead of us as we manage through this time.

• Altering Corn-Soybean Acreage & Market Prices:

  There doesn’t seem to be a clear winner when it comes to choosing a corn and soybean crop mix this year. Corn prices have taken a hit due to the fall in gas prices, due to a price war, making ethanol less attractive, as well as decreased ethanol demand due to a drop in travel. Because corn prices in the U.S. are largely held up by the ethanol market, which accounts for 40% of corn production, commodity corn prices have declined in the past several weeks. Additionally, soybeans are still facing low prices due to the lingering effects of the trade war between U.S. and China, as well as the slow down in Chinese imports after a nearly 2 month shutdown of a lot of manufacturing in China due to the outbreak of Covid-19.

• Staying Healthy During Planting Is Critical:

  With every crop, region and farm, operators have a limited time window to complete planting at the right time. With a spike in Covid-19 cases coming at a critical time with planting around the corner, many farmers are busy thinking about how to stay healthy and starting to think through contingency plans if someone does get sick. Additionally, with most farmers in the U.S. in the “at risk” age group for Covid-19, with the average age of the U.S. farmer at 57.5 years old, it becomes even more important that farmers put their health first. 

• Uncertainty over Input Prices:

  I have read articles and talked to farmers that have differing opinions on the direction of input prices for farmers this year. Some believe that input prices will remain steady or decline compared to last year, while others believe that manufacturing changes and hiccups could cause a jump in prices due to the pandemic.

• Cash Flow and Bank Loans Are A Concern:

  During this time, smaller farmers that are still paying off their land or have had difficulty with cash flow in recent years may find this is a make or break year for their operation. Low commodity prices, uncertainty over farmland values, and logistic concerns and disruptions are leaving farmers worried about what this year will do to their bottom line. 

•  A Divide In Rural Communities’ Response To Covid-19: 

  A number of people in rural communities still do not believe or understand the seriousness of the situation. In many of these small communities without any Covid-19 cases yet,  the importance of social distancing and changing everyday habits is difficult to grasp. 

This is by no means an exclusive list of impacts of the Covid-19 crisis. In addition to this list there are many more considerations further down the supply chain as well as a separate set of concerns for small vegetable producers. This is a critical time to define problems as well as solutions and innovate and build a more resilient agri-food system.

Other Articles To Read:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-hits-already-frail-u-s-farm-economy-11584783001

https://www.wisfarmer.com/story/news/2020/03/18/six-possible-impacts-covid-19-farming/2868896001/

https://www.agriculture.com/news/business/how-covid-19-will-impact-2020-planting-decisions